The Solomon Islands National Statistics Office, SINSO, has released the new Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimates in current and constant 2012 prices from 2021-2024 preliminary, whilst maintaining the GDP time-series from 2003.
According to the report, the estimates record the progress of economic development during the post-Covid-19 pandemic era, noting the effects of subsequent shocks, and the economic recovery from 2023 into 2024.
The compilation of the GDP estimates apply the production and expenditure approaches within the framework of the United Nations System of National Accounts. Estimates are based on current and constant 2012 prices by economic activity and expenditure components.
The review of the 2021 and 2022 GDP estimates show the economy contracting further into recession since 2020 with three consecutive years of negative real GDP growth – although the combined scale of the 2021-2022 contraction was unlikely to surpass the 2020 growth (-3.4 percent).
From 2021, real growth struggled to break from negative territory hence slowing down with -0.2 percent, and retracting further to -2.6 percent in 2022. These periods saw the negative flow-on effects of Covid-19 and the Honiara riots in late 2021, spilling over into 2022.
The economy rebounded in 2023 with real growth of +2.8 percent and expanding into 2024 with a +3.0 percent growth.
Economic activity in nominal terms was reduced by $700 million (2021-2022) and rebounded with an increase of over $1.4 billion (2023-2024) while real GDP was reduced by $300 million during the same period, rebounding with an increase of $600 mill (2023-2024) as the economy recovered.
Economic growth by major economic activity from 2021-2024 showed that the Industry sector comprising of: mining & quarrying, manufacturing, electricity-water, and construction industries had a strong and positive overall impact on the economy despite the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and riots in Honiara – with real economic growths of: +3.1 (2021), +2.1 (2022), +12.5 (2023) and +8.3 (2024).
These growths were initially driven by the construction industry from 2021 onwards, demonstrating growths of +8.5 (2021), +7.5 (2022), +3.6 (2023) and +3.8 (2024) – attributed mainly to preparations of the Pacific Games event in 2023 and infrastructure activities across the country.
With the recovery of the mining industry in 2022, real growth in mining has quadrupled in 2023 (303.2 percent) whilst slowing down to 48.2 percent in 2024.
Real growth in the Primary sector (Agriculture, Fishery & Forestry) was subdued especially with declines in forestry-logging industry in 2021 (-5.3 percent) and in 2022 (-11.3 percent) outweighing sluggish growths in 2023-2024; and with the fishery industry experiencing negative growths in 2022-2023 (-3.8 percent, -4.5 percent, respectively).
The agriculture industry appears to be experiencing a slow recovery.
Moreover, the Services sector experienced slower negative growths in 2021 (-1.3 percent) and 2022 (-0.1 percent) and is slowly recovering in 2023-2024 and with the fishery industry experiencing negative growths in 2022-2023 (-3.8 percent, -4.5 percent, respectively).
By expenditure components, real growth from 2021-2024 showed positive increases in household final consumption: 2021 (+12.7 percent), 2022 (+8.6 percent), 2023 (+11.9 percent) and 2024 (+8.3 percent) including strong demand for imports of merchandise goods and services: 2021 (+31.1 percent), 2022 (+17.9 percent), 2023 (+30.2 percent) and 2024 (+14.2 percent). Although there was strong and positive demand for capital formation (GFCF) in 2021 (+27.3 percent), this was reversed with a sudden decline in the following year (-16.3 percent).
See the full report and corresponding tables below.
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